> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Boeing Won Everything. The Stock Fell 15% - URL: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/boeing-won-everything-the-stock-fell-15/ - Published: 2026-10-27T11:21:19.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-27T11:21:19.000Z - Description: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was hawkish enough to reprice September's rate hike from a 38% probability to 60.4% overnight - Author: Alpha Market Alerts - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1788259491317, #Import 2026-09-01 10:46 | Alpha Market Alerts Tuesday deep-dive, 27 October 2026 | | ------------------------------------------------------ | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Boeing Won Everything. The Stock Fell 15%. | | | | A fighter contract, an FAA certification, a strike ended and a record delivery pace. Shares are down about 15% since the last report, because none of it has turned into cash — which is the only thing your position here can be paid in. | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | KEY POINTS | | Consensus wants a loss of 21 cents, against a $7.47 loss a year ago. Free cash flow consensus is $330.5 million — the number your position turns on. Boeing already reported 161 deliveries on October 13, down from 171\. Shares are down about 15% since the last report, despite the wins you read about. | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Boeing won the Navy’s next-generation fighter last quarter, got the 737-10 certified, ended a strike, and delivered MAX jets at its fastest pace ever. | | The stock is down about 15% since the last report. | | Wall Street expects a loss of 21 cents a share this morning, and free cash flow of roughly $330 million. | | And none of those wins is money yet. That’s the whole issue, and the only one that decides what you make here. | | | | ----------------------------------------- | | | | | | What Boeing Brings To Today | | | | What your position rests on this morning: | | • | [Consensus a loss of 21 cents a share, against a $7.47 loss a year ago](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/boeing-forecast-to-post-small-quarterly-lossdespite-recent-wins-analysts-say-4973392?ref=alpha-token-radar.ghost.io) | | - | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | • | **Revenue** expected near $23.95 billion, up about 3% | | • | **Free cash flow** consensus $330.5 million, with $2.3 billion for the full year | | • | **Deliveries** 161 commercial aircraft, already reported on October 13 | | • | **Shares** down roughly 15% since the last report | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Last year’s quarter carried a $4.9 billion charge on the 777X, which is why a 21-cent loss counts as progress on the screen you’re reading. | | And the delivery number is already public. Boeing told you on October 13 that it shipped 161 planes, down from 171 the quarter before, so the only real news this morning is what that converted into. | | Cash. Or promises. | | Your position here is a bet on conversion, not on orders. | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ![Boeing one-year candlestick chart](https://storage.ghost.io/c/72/f0/72f04833-ac31-4e88-996a-e73d5b3d7759/content/images/2026/10/BA_2026-10-27_11-49-16.png) | | Good news all quarter, and a falling share price | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | Why The Wins Haven’t Paid | | | | Free cash flow guidance for the year is $1 billion to $3 billion. Reaffirmed. | | But the arithmetic behind that range is uncomfortable. If this morning’s quarter lands near the $330 million consensus, the fourth quarter has to produce $1.5 billion or more on its own. That’s a large number to concentrate in thirteen weeks, and the call this morning tells you how credible it is. | | And the production ramp is the reason. Boeing is still trying to stabilize 737 output at 47 a month, and the 787 line has struggled to move from eight to ten. | | Deliveries fell from 171 to 161 between quarters. Not a ramp. | | Two drains sit on top — the 777-9 certification and new defense production facilities. Both cost money before either earns any. | | And the return here is price alone, for as long as the cash goes back into the production line rather than into your account. | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | What The Wins Are Worth | | | | Last quarter is the cleanest evidence you have. [Revenue of $24.56 billion, up 8%](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/boeing-cleared-departure-latest-faa-152220662.html?ref=alpha-token-radar.ghost.io). Deliveries up 14%. Free cash flow of positive $631 million against negative $200 million a year earlier. | | That’s a company that already turned the corner on cash once, which is more than most turnarounds you’ve held can say. | | And the backlog reached a record $715 billion. Boeing has delivered 363 MAX jets through nine months, its fastest pace on record. And the FAA certified the 737-10 about a week ago, removing a constraint that held the line back for years. | | The Navy fighter contract is the other half. Northrop Grumman lost that competition — the program this letter covered a week ago from the other side — and Boeing now sits in both sixth-generation programs. | | Those are decade-long positions you’d hold through several cycles. | | And if the cash follows, you own the recovery rather than the headline. | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | What Settles This Morning | | | | Everything reduces to free cash flow for you. Nothing else. | | Above the $330 million consensus and the full-year range stays credible. Below it, and the fourth quarter has to carry $1.5 billion or more, turning recovery back into promise. | | For Band 1 holders, this is the shape of a turnaround bet — no income while you hold, and the whole return sitting in whether execution matches the order book. | | Boeing won the contracts. The cash is the open question. | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | What to Watch | | | | Boeing’s call starts at 10:30 ET this morning, where management either reaffirms the $1 billion to $3 billion range or doesn’t. The Fed decides tomorrow at 2:00, and GDP with September inflation follows Thursday at 8:30\. | | The risk running against the bull case: the 777-9\. Certification timing is the single largest variable left, and it drains cash on a schedule Boeing doesn’t fully control. A slip there moves the full-year number more than any delivery total does, and you’d hear it on the call before you saw it in a filing. | | | | ------------------- | | | | | | Alpha Market Alerts |