> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Microsoft and Meta Report Tonight. Capex Is What Moves Them. - URL: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/microsoft-and-meta-report-tonight/ - Published: 2026-07-29T11:11:35.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-01T10:46:27.000Z - Description: Both are down 25–31% from their records despite strong revenue — and tonight's capex guidance numbers, not EPS, will tell you whether to hold, trim, or add. - Author: Alpha Market Alerts - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1788259491317, #Import 2026-09-01 10:46 # Key Points > Microsoft enters tonight down 31% from its record $555 high, with FY2027 capex of $255–260B expected.Meta is down 25% from its $796 record and fell 6–7% after last quarter’s report despite beating revenue estimates.Combined Big Tech capex from Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet alone has reached $725 billion this earnings season. --- Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) both beat estimates last quarter. MSFT beat on revenue and EPS. META beat on revenue and EPS. Both stocks fell anyway — because capex came in higher than expected. Tonight that test repeats. Both report after the close, and Wall Street’s already told you it doesn’t care about the revenue line. It cares about how much these companies plan to spend on AI infrastructure in 2027 — and whether the returns justify it. Your positions in MSFT and META are waiting on that answer tonight. --- # What Wall Street’s Actually Watching Tonight Revenue beats are already priced in. Both companies have beaten estimates for four or more consecutive quarters. That’s not the catalyst. The catalyst is FY2027 capex guidance for Microsoft and full-year 2026 capex for Meta. Here’s what each number means: - Microsoft expected to guide FY2027 capex at $255–260B — roughly 20–30% growth. A figure near the low end signals discipline. Above $260B reopens the FCF compression debate. - Meta’s full-year 2026 capex range sits at $58–61B. If management raises it tonight, the stock likely falls — it’s happened twice already this year. - Microsoft’s commercial cloud backlog is $627B — but Azure needs to reaccelerate to justify the spend. - Meta’s ad revenue grew 27% last quarter, but EPS growth is expected near flat year-over-year because capex is consuming the margin. - The season’s already set the rule: Alphabet grew 24% last week and still got sold — because capex came in high. Both companies enter tonight with roughly 95% beat odds on EPS. But a beat alone won’t move either stock. --- # Microsoft: Azure Growth vs. a $260B Spending Machine MSFT is down 31% from its $555 record. That’s not a punishment for bad earnings. It’s a repricing for spending the market can’t yet verify. The bull case is real. Azure grew 18% last quarter. The $627B commercial backlog gives multi-year revenue visibility. And MSFT has beaten estimates for four straight quarters. But the bear case is specific. If FY2027 capex guidance lands at $260B or above, free cash flow gets squeezed. The dividend — one of the strongest in large-cap tech — starts competing with data center spending. That’s the scenario Band 3 income-focused holders need to watch tonight. Azure growth rate is your signal. If it reaccelerates above 20%, capex at $260B is defensible. If it holds at 18% and capex rises, the repricing continues. Your MSFT position’s next move comes from one line item on tonight’s call. Not revenue. Not EPS. Capex guidance for FY2027. --- # Meta: Ad Revenue That Keeps Growing, Margins That Keep Getting Eaten META is down 25% from its $796 record — and beat estimates last quarter. It beat them the quarter before. Both times it fell anyway. Capex came in above what the market expected. Both times. Tonight’s key number is the full-year 2026 capex range. Management has raised it twice already this year. A third raise is the third consecutive quarter where the ad engine is strong but margin is eroding. But META’s bull case is more compelling than it looks. Gross margin runs at 82%. Forward P/E sits near 19x — below its own three-year average of 23x. If ad pricing holds and capex guidance doesn’t shock, $595 is cheap relative to META’s own history. The real question: does Zuckerberg’s AI build eventually show up as durable ad gains — or is it permanently diluting returns without a payoff date? Tonight’s Q3 revenue guidance and capex number give you the clearest read yet. --- # What Your Positions Need From Tonight Two stocks. One question. Is the AI spend creating returns — or consuming them? For MSFT: watch Azure growth rate and FY2027 capex against $255–260B. Azure above 20% with capex at the low end is where the 31% drawdown starts to look like an entry point. For META: watch full-year 2026 capex guidance. A third raise without Q3 revenue acceleration is the scenario where tonight’s stock reaction turns negative on a beat. Both answers come after the close. --- # What to Watch Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) report tomorrow July 30 after the close — Apple’s on-device AI strategy and Amazon Web Services growth rate complete the Big Tech capex picture this week. If all four companies guide higher on capex simultaneously, the chip sell-off from Monday extends further. NVDA reports August 26 — but tonight’s Microsoft and Meta calls are the clearest proxy for whether Blackwell chip demand is accelerating or plateauing. Watch Azure and Meta’s Q3 revenue guide first. Everything else follows from those two numbers. --- [Subscribe](#/portal/signup)