> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # SpaceX Hit an All-Time Low Yesterday. It Reports Tonight - URL: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/spacex-hit-an-all-time-low-yesterday/ - Published: 2026-08-04T09:26:44.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-01T10:46:24.000Z - Description: SPCX touched $104.83 Monday — its lowest price since the June IPO — then bounced to $114. - Author: Alpha Market Alerts - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1788259491317, #Import 2026-09-01 10:46 # Key Points > SPCX hit an all-time low of $104.83 Monday before bouncing to $114 — now 50% below its $225 post-IPO peak.SpaceX reports Q2 earnings tonight at 4:30 PM ET; consensus expects a loss of $0.26 per share on $6.88–6.93B revenue.911.5 million additional shares — nearly tripling the current public float — unlock Thursday August 6. --- Your SpaceX position just had its worst day since the IPO. Monday, SPCX hit $104.83 — a new all-time low. It bounced. But it’s still down more than 50% from where it traded six days after going public. Tonight at 4:30 PM ET, SpaceX delivers its first public earnings. And two days later, 911.5 million shares unlock for sale. That’s not a normal earnings setup. It’s a binary event with a structural supply shock attached. --- # What SpaceX Actually Is Right Now Let’s get the business straight before tonight’s call. SpaceX runs three segments. Starlink — connectivity — is the only one that makes money. Space launches government rockets and Pentagon contracts. AI runs Grok and xAI data centers. Both Space and AI run at operating losses. The numbers coming into tonight: - Starlink: 10.3 million subscribers as of Q1, up 105% year over year - Q2 revenue consensus: $6.88–6.93 billion, up from $4.69 billion in Q1 - EPS consensus: –$0.26 per share loss - Current float: roughly 639 million shares — under 5% of 13.2 billion total outstanding - Lock-up August 6: 911.5 million additional shares become tradable, nearly tripling the float 27 of 28 analysts rate SPCX a Buy. Average price target: $236\. That’s more than 100% upside from today. And the stock’s at $114\. Which tells you something — not about the business, but about what happens when institutional money can’t see the supply picture clearly. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/72/f0/72f04833-ac31-4e88-996a-e73d5b3d7759/content/images/2026/09/0052f481-5db0-4d0f-b50e-791e80d90a07_2820x814.png) SPCX down 50% from ATH ahead of first-ever earnings call --- # The Bear Case Is Specific Down 50% from peak sounds like an opportunity. But the bear case here isn’t about the business. It’s about supply. Thursday, the lock-up expiration adds 911.5 million shares to a float that currently holds 639 million. It more than triples overnight. Early employees and pre-IPO backers can sell. Not all of them will. But the supply pressure exists regardless. History is clear on this. Lock-up expirations don’t always cause sell-offs. But they create supply at exactly the moment the stock needs buyers. And the timing is intentionally tight: earnings Tuesday, lock-up Thursday. If tonight’s print merely meets expectations, Thursday’s supply picture gets heavier, not lighter. And SpaceX is still losing money at the company level. The –$0.26 EPS consensus reflects the burn in AI and Starship. Starship — the vehicle the long-term thesis depends on — is still in test flights. Not commercial service. Not yet. --- # The Bull Case Is Equally Specific But here’s what the bear case can’t explain. 27 of 28 analysts rate SPCX a Buy with an average target of $236 — more than double today’s price. And they set those targets knowing about the lock-up. Starlink is the engine. 10.3 million subscribers, up 105% year over year, with a price increase already in market since May. If Q2 hits 11.5 million subs — a 12% sequential jump — that validates the growth rate with real numbers. The AI segment is the optionality. $3.2 billion in 2025 AI revenue, growing. If management puts a credible Q2 number on AI revenue tonight — not projections, actual revenue — the addressable market story gets a data point instead of a slide deck. And Elon Musk replied “I think so” on Monday to a post calling the dip an “insane opportunity” — the same day the stock hit its low and then bounced $10\. He didn’t have to say that. --- # What Your Position Needs From Tonight Two numbers. That’s it. Starlink subscriber count versus the 10.3 million Q1 baseline. And Q2 AI segment revenue versus the $818 million Q1 baseline. Both accelerating means the bull case has data. Either disappointing means Thursday’s lock-up expiration adds structural supply on top of a print that didn’t deliver. For Band 1 holders who bought the IPO at $135: tonight resolves whether this is a dip or a broken thesis. For Band 2 holders considering entry at $114: the lock-up Thursday is a real timing question, not a technicality. Call starts at 4:30 PM ET. --- # What Your Position Needs From Tonight Two numbers. That’s it. Starlink subscriber count vs. the 10.3 million Q1 baseline. And Q2 AI revenue vs. the $818 million Q1 figure. Both accelerating gives the bull case real data. Either missing puts Thursday’s supply flood on top of a disappointing print. For Band 1 holders who bought at $135: tonight tells you whether this is a dip or a broken thesis. For Band 2 holders sizing an entry at $114: Thursday’s lock-up is a timing question, not a footnote. Call starts at 4:30 PM ET. --- # What to Watch Tonight, 4:30 PM ET — SpaceX Q2 earnings call. Watch two numbers in order: - (1) Starlink subscriber count vs. 10.3M Q1 baseline, and - (2) Q2 AI segment revenue vs. $818M Q1. Thursday August 6 — lock-up expiration adds 911.5M shares to the float. A strong print tonight doesn't guarantee the lock-up doesn't pressure the stock anyway. AMD reports tomorrow August 5 after the close — data center segment vs. $5.8B Q1 baseline is your NVDA proxy read before the August 26 chip print. --- [Subscribe](#/portal/signup)