> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Your Mortgage Sits At 6.76%. The Fed Meets Wednesday. - URL: https://alpha-token-radar.ghost.io/your-mortgage-sits-at-6-76-the-fed-meets-wednesday/ - Published: 2026-09-14T10:56:11.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-14T10:56:11.000Z - Description: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was hawkish enough to reprice September's rate hike from a 38% probability to 60.4% overnight - Author: Alpha Market Alerts - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1788259491317, #Import 2026-09-01 10:46 | Alpha Market Alerts Monday deep-dive, 14 September 2026 | | ------------------------------------------------------- | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Your Mortgage Sits At 6.76%. The Fed Meets Wednesday. | | | | Hike odds went from 58% to about 90% in a week, so Wednesday's decision is settled. What isn't settled is the page of projections behind it — and that page prices your mortgage, not just your portfolio. | | | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | KEY POINTS | | Hike odds for Wednesday sit near 90%, against 58% seven days ago. Your 30-year mortgage benchmark printed 6.76%, up from 6.71% the week before. Lennar reports Wednesday at 4:45 ET, two hours after the Fed speaks. A Saudi pipeline outage threatens roughly 4% of global supply, and your pump knows it. | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | The 30-year mortgage printed 6.76% last week. Up again. | | Hike odds for Wednesday have gone from 58% to roughly 90% in seven days, and the market has stopped asking whether. | | It's asking how many. | | And the answer lands at 2:00 Wednesday in a page of dots, not in the decision itself. Which matters more to your house than to your portfolio. | | | | ---------------------------------------- | | | | | | Where The Week Starts | | | | Friday's close, and this morning's tape: | | • | **S&P 500** at 7,657, sitting 0.65% above its 50-day average | | - | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | • | **Nasdaq** at 26,333, still 7.6% above its 200-day average | | • | **VIX** back above its 50-day line near 18 — about a 1.1% daily swing | | • | [Hike odds for Wednesday: roughly 90%, against 58% a week ago](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/weekly-traders-outlook?ref=alpha-token-radar.ghost.io) | | • | [30-year mortgage: 6.76%, up from 6.71% the prior week](https://www.optionstradingreport.com/2026/09/lennar-faces-its-hardest-earnings-test-in-years/?ref=alpha-token-radar.ghost.io) | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Equities are not priced for stress. Volatility is. Your portfolio sits between those two readings. | | A move of 0.05% on a mortgage sounds like nothing. On the $400,000 you might borrow it's real money, and it moved the wrong way while the index sat still. | | And your house is in this trade whether you own stocks or not. | | | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | Lennar Reports Right After | | | | Lennar (NYSE: LEN) reports Wednesday at 4:45 ET. The Fed speaks at 2:00. | | Two hours and forty-five minutes apart, and the ordering is the setup — the market hears what rates are doing, then hears what that's already done to the country's largest homebuilder. | | Street wants $1.30 a share on $8.37 billion (a year ago the same quarter produced $2.00, in case the trend isn't clear). Full-year estimates have compressed to $5.52 from $8.06. | | And the 2027 recovery case assumes mortgage rates fall. At 6.76% and climbing, that assumption is doing a lot of work. | | Carnival (NYSE: CCL) follows Thursday. Different question. | | If you own a home, or your kids are trying to buy one, watch new orders rather than earnings. | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | What The Dots Will Say | | | | Wednesday carries the week. [Retail sales at 8:30, homebuilder sentiment at 10:00, the decision and the projections at 2:00](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/stock-market-next-week-outlook-for-sept-14-18-2026.html?ref=alpha-token-radar.ghost.io). | | The dots are the event. Not the rate. | | A page showing three more hikes over the next year isn't priced, and that page reprices everything from Treasuries to the house down your street. | | One strategist made the point last week: more important than a hike or a hold is whether the Fed establishes credibility on inflation. | | And the backdrop worsened over the weekend. [A Saudi pipeline shutdown threatens roughly 4% of global oil supply](https://www.tickmill.com/blog/daily-market-outlook-september-14-2026?ref=alpha-token-radar.ghost.io), and Hormuz talks were postponed. | | Oil above $100 makes those dots more hawkish, and you pay for that twice — at the pump and in your mortgage. | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | What To Position For | | | | Two things get decided Wednesday for you. Neither is the rate. | | Whether the projections show a series or a single move. And whether Lennar's order book confirms what 6.76% already implies. | | For Band 2 holders inside ten years of retirement, a hiking cycle changes the sequence math rather than just the yield, because the order of your returns matters more than their average. For Band 1 holders still buying, it's your entry price. | | Wednesday at 2:00\. Everything else is positioning. | | | | ----------------------- | | | | | | What to Watch This Week | | | | **Lennar (NYSE: LEN)** — Wednesday, 4:45 ET. Consensus wants $1.30 against $2.00 a year ago. But the line to read is new orders, because it's the only one that tells you what buyers did after rates went back above 6.7%. | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Carnival (NYSE: CCL)** — Thursday. Cruise bookings are the cleanest read left on discretionary spending, and a household paying $4.15 for gasoline has less left for a balcony cabin. | | **Homebuilder sentiment** — Wednesday, 10:00 ET. Not a ticker, but it lands four hours before the Fed and tells you what builders see from inside the lot. | | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | | | | Beyond Wednesday | | | | The Fed's next decision comes at the end of October, and September CPI lands October 14 — which means Wednesday's dots have a month to be right before the next number tests them, and tests your positioning with them. | | The risk running the other way: oil. A Hormuz agreement or a pipeline restart pulls crude off $100 fast, and the inflation case the Fed is about to act on softens behind them. | | They'd be hiking into a problem already fixing itself. That's how policy mistakes get made, and your bond holdings wear it. | | | | ------------------- | | | | | | Alpha Market Alerts |