Key Points

NVIDIA reports Q2 FY27 after the close tonight; 40 analysts have consensus at $91.85B revenue and $2.08 EPS — both roughly double last year.Q3 FY27 consensus sits at $102-103B; that guidance number — not the Q2 beat — is what moves the stock tonight.Last quarter, three customers accounted for 21%, 17%, and 16% of NVDA’s total revenue — hyperscalers and non-hyperscalers split almost evenly at $37.9B vs $37.4B.

Tonight after the close, NVDA reports. Your position — or your QQQ, SMH, or broad tech ETF — gets its clearest AI infrastructure read of the year in the next 12 hours.

Consensus puts revenue at $91.85 billion, 0.9% above NVDA’s own guide. Both figures roughly double last year. A beat on Q2 is expected. Priced in. The Q3 guide is what moves the stock. The Motley Fool

But NVDA isn’t the only name in tonight’s blast radius. Five others move with it — and you need to know which ones and why.

Tonight’s Print by the Numbers

NVDA trades at 21.1 times forward earnings — the same multiple as the S&P 500. That’s the market’s way of saying: if it hits expectations, it prices like an average stock. But NVDA doesn’t hit expectations. It beats them. And the order book behind the Q3 guide is not average.

Here’s the setup coming into tonight’s call:

• Q2 revenue consensus: $91.85B — NVDA guided $91.0B, so the bar sits 0.9% above management’s midpoint
• Q3 revenue consensus: $102-103B — this is the number that actually moves the stock
• NVDA has flagged an order book worth $1 trillion for 2026 and 2027 combined; trailing twelve-month revenue is $253 billion — the gap between backlog and revenue is the bull case
• Last quarter, hyperscalers and non-hyperscalers split almost evenly — $37.9B vs $37.4B — a broadening of demand beyond the four big cloud providers
• Vera Rubin — NVDA’s next-gen platform after Blackwell — is shipping in H2 2026; any acceleration in that timeline is upside the market isn’t pricing

Your NVDA position gets clarity tonight. But so does every other name in this ecosystem.

The Names That Move With NVDA Tonight

Not every name moves the same way. And that matters for your portfolio.

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) is the most directly correlated to NVDA’s Blackwell ramp — it builds the server systems that house NVDA chips. A strong NVDA print with bullish Blackwell commentary is a direct read-through for SMCI. A disappointing Q3 guide pressures it immediately.

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) reports Thursday after tonight’s print — up 180% year-to-date against NVDA’s 17%. MRVL is the custom chip play: it designs networking and AI infrastructure silicon for hyperscalers who want alternatives to full NVDA stacks. A strong NVDA Q3 guide confirms the AI buildout is intact — and MRVL rides the same capex wave. But if NVDA disappoints, MRVL’s setup going into Thursday gets harder.

Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) — NVDA’s primary chip manufacturer — reports quarterly revenue data that directly tracks NVDA’s production pace. A strong NVDA print and Vera Rubin ramp acceleration means higher TSM orders. Your TSM position, if you hold it, is a bet on the same thesis as your NVDA position — but with a different risk profile and without the valuation premium.

For Band 1 holders who own all three — NVDA, SMCI, MRVL — tonight’s call affects all three positions simultaneously.

AMD and QQQ — the Broader Read

And then there are the names you probably own without realizing it.

AMD doesn’t report tonight. But its data center segment — $6.72 billion in Q2, up 57% year-over-year — is the direct alternative to NVDA’s Blackwell in enterprise AI deployments. A strong NVDA Q3 guide validates that enterprise AI chip demand is broadening — tailwind for AMD too. A disappointing NVDA guide opens the question of whether the AI chip cycle is plateauing — which is AMD’s problem in October, not tonight.

But the name you most likely own is QQQ. NVDA sits at roughly 7-8% of the Invesco QQQ Trust’s total weight. Every basis point of NVDA’s move tonight lands directly in your QQQ position. SMH is even more direct — NVDA is typically the largest holding at 20%+.

If you hold any broad tech ETF and haven’t mapped your actual NVDA exposure, tonight is the right moment to do that arithmetic.

What Your Portfolio Needs After the Close

Two numbers. Then everything else follows.

Q2 revenue vs $91.85B. And Q3 guide vs $102-103B. The Q2 beat is context. The Q3 guide is the verdict.

For Band 1 holders with direct NVDA, SMCI, or MRVL positions: watch the call live or get the numbers by 5:30 PM ET. The Q3 guide is the only sentence that matters.

For Band 2 and Band 3 holders with QQQ or SMH as your AI exposure: your position moves tonight in direct proportion to NVDA’s after-hours move. Know your size before the print lands.

The answer comes after the close. You’ll know it before midnight.

What to Watch

Tonight after the close — NVDA Q2 FY27 earnings. Q3 guidance vs $102-103B is the print.

MRVL reports Thursday August 27 after close — watch for demand confirmation from the custom chip side of the trade.

Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech Friday August 28 at 10:00 AM ET — a hawkish surprise hits growth multiples across your entire tech portfolio right after NVDA's print.

Key risk: even a strong NVDA print can be sold if the Q3 guide merely meets expectations — the market needs a beat on Q3 guidance, not just Q2 revenue.