Warsh Just Hiked the September Odds to 60%. Friday Decides
Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was hawkish enough to reprice September's rate hike from a 38% probability to 60.4% overnight
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NVDA Beat by 4.5%. Guided Above Consensus. Stock Fell. Here's Why
NVIDIA just delivered its fifth consecutive earnings beat — revenue up 106% year-over-year, data center at $89 billion, Q3 guidance above what analysts expected.
NVDA Reports Tonight. Five Names Move With It
NVIDIA's earnings call tonight resolves the biggest contested debate in your portfolio. But NVDA isn't the only name that moves.
Gold Surged 3.5%. Touched $4,500. Treasury Doubled Buybacks. Fed Overruled
Gold is now up 15% in August alone — its strongest monthly gain since September 1999 — driven by Treasury doubling long-dated bond buybacks while the Fed's own minutes showed officials wanted to hike
NVDA Wednesday. Warsh Friday. Your Portfolio Has Two Days That Matter
Two events this week that move different parts of your portfolio in different directions. NVIDIA's earnings print Wednesday resolves the AI chip cycle question
Brent's at $93 and Climbing. Your Energy Positions Need a Framework
The US-Iran MOU expired Monday with no deal, the UAE just sanctioned Iran, and Brent has risen four consecutive sessions — XOM is up 30% YTD
Home Depot Beat. Housing's Still Frozen Solid.
Comps rose 1.7% in a market the CFO calls frozen. Here's what that split means for your position — and for the dividend you're counting on.
Sentiment Hit 51 — Four Retailers Answer This Week
Four retailers report in three days and the July Fed minutes land in the middle. Your index funds sit at a record. The shoppers funding that record don't.
Record Quarter, 5% Drop: What AMAT Just Told You
Applied Materials beat on revenue, on earnings, and on margin — then lost about 5% anyway. Here's what that gap says about the price your growth holdings are carrying into the back half of your year.
Your Power Bill Rose 4.2%. Your Utility Position Didn't.
Electricity was the quiet line in yesterday's CPI, and the demand behind it is already under contract into the 2030s. Your meter and your dividend now run off the same buildout.
Memory Stocks Halved. Boards Authorized $15.5 Billion More.
Four names in your index funds just got repriced hard. And their boards responded by authorizing billions to buy the stock back.
Your Intel Stake Just Got 4% Smaller Overnight
Intel raised $20 billion overnight by selling new stock at $95. Here's what that does to the shares you already own — and what it tells you about who's funding the AI build-out.
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Wednesday's 8:30 Print Decides the September Hike
One inflation number Wednesday morning settles whether September brings a rate hike or a hold. Your bond ladder, your mortgage math and your equity multiple all sit downstream of it.
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Your Index Fund Owns SpaceX. Nobody Asked You.
Revenue beat. Spending didn't. And if you hold a broad tech index, you already own the outcome.
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Your Energy Dividends Just Met a $75 Barrel
ConocoPhillips just doubled its profit on a barrel that no longer trades. Pump prices haven't followed crude down. What that gap means for your energy income.
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SpaceX Hit an All-Time Low Yesterday. It Reports Tonight
SPCX touched $104.83 Monday — its lowest price since the June IPO — then bounced to $114.
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SpaceX Reports Tuesday. AMD Wednesday. Jobs Friday. Your Week
SpaceX's first earnings as a public company lands Tuesday with its stock down 50% from the peak and a $100B lock-up expiring Thursday — AMD and the July jobs report follow.
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Amazon Up 7%. Apple Down 4%. The Week Just Told You Something.
Amazon Up 7%. Apple Down 4%. The Week Just Told You Something.
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Microsoft Up 7%. Meta Fell. Same AI Bet. Different Bills.
Azure hit 43% growth and crossed $100B annual revenue — MSFT popped 7% after hours. Meta's EPS missed by 15% and raised capex again. Your positions in both just moved.
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Microsoft and Meta Report Tonight. Capex Is What Moves Them.
Both are down 25–31% from their records despite strong revenue — and tonight's capex guidance numbers, not EPS, will tell you whether to hold, trim, or add.
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Chips Are Selling Off Hard. Your NVDA Position Needs a Framework.
The semiconductor ETF is down 3.6% before the open. SK Hynix crashed 14% overnight. AMD's off more than 3%. This isn't random noise — but it may not be fundamental either.
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Alphabet Beat Every Number. Stock's Flat. Here's Why
Cloud up 82%, revenue $119.8B, EPS $9.11 — but capex hit $44.9B and free cash flow went negative. Your GOOGL position just got a very specific question to answer.
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Rubio Said Iran's Not Serious. Brent's at $94. Here's Your Read-Through
Oil's up 20% in July alone, the Strait of Hormuz stays a sticking point, and your energy names, airline stocks, and August CPI are all repricing at the same time.
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Northrop Grumman Reports This Morning. Here's the Contested Case
NOC trades 25% below the analyst consensus price target with a record $95.6B backlog — and a cost overrun on its most important program that the market hasn't forgiven.